Monday, March 31, 2008

Narrowed back down to one

So as I take the last courses for my Master's I've come to terms with something that's really important to my academic future: When it comes to doctoral work, I'm just not interested in doing another huge chunk of coursework. I'd really rather do some research. That's a big deal, because it means that all the American programs I've considered are off the table, as would be the program at Leicester. In fact, the only one left that I was considering that's conducive to that is working with Johannes at Cape Peninsula University of Technology. But maybe it's good that I've come full circle on this -- I like Johannes a lot, we have compatible interests, he's interested in working with me, and it's the least expensive option by an order of magnitude. What reason to keep looking could there be?

It's unfortunate that that trip to Cape Town I mentioned last year ended up getting scrubbed, meaning I didn't get the chance to visit CPUT. Still, I've never even been to the school where I finished my BS and can count on one hand the number of times I've been to GW, so that's not really that big a deal. It would still be nice to check it out, though, if I get the chance, especially since Johannes seemed so hospitable when I thought I was going to be in town. Maybe later....

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Friday, March 07, 2008

Fool's gold?

Adella and I were recently discussing what currency we'd use for our savings once we hopefully soon can start to accumulate a little. We talked about the practicalities of having a savings account denominated in euros, pounds, or gold (all of which it turns out are essentially impossible with U.S. banks). So right as we were doing that, my Mom forwards me an article from her broker out of the blue arguing against the continued rise of the price of gold.

It reminded me how, because of my prior involvement in online gold-based payment systems, there were a few years there where I would occasionally be asked whether I thought gold was a smart thing to buy. Why they asked me and not some with actual money, I can't say. But I remember always making the same two points:
  1. No matter how clever their analyses may seem, no one really knows what the price of gold is going to do.
  2. Anyone who tries to convince you that they really know what the price gold is going to do is at best mistaken and at worst trying to deceive you into buying something.
The author's point about gold ETFs is a good one, but it's not like mutual funds that track gold haven't existed before that, or just stocks like Freeport MacMoRan.

Moreover, if I had to guess, I'd say that the combination of a growing middle class in India, China, Malaysia, and elsewhere, where there's a strong cultural inclination toward gold as a store of value, combined with the inflation I expect we'll be seeing here in the U.S. for some time to come, means that $1,000 will not be some sort of magic ceiling for gold.

But then, that's just my guess. See point number one.

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